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UFC 331 Fight Breakdown: Van vs. Pantoja 2 Analysis & Mathematical Betting Edge • SCHEDULE Dana White's Contender Series Season 8: Full Fight Card & Global Broadcast Times • ANALYTICS Odds to Payout Engine: Real-Time Value Calculator for Upcoming UFC Cards • UFC 331 Fight Breakdown: Van vs. Pantoja 2 Analysis & Mathematical Betting Edge • SCHEDULE Dana White's Contender Series Season 8: Full Fight Card & Global Broadcast Times • ANALYTICS Odds to Payout Engine: Real-Time Value Calculator for Upcoming UFC Cards

News & Fight Analysis

BREAKING & LATEST UPDATES

UFC PPV Breakdown • Championship

UFC 331 Fight Breakdown: Van vs. Pantoja 2 Analysis & Mathematical Betting Edge

A comprehensive tactical deep dive into flyweight championship dynamics, grappling control variances, late-round pace sustainability, and betting market value.

RX

Rombrex Combat Desk

Senior MMA Analyst • Verified Sports Desk

September 2026

6 min read

28.4k reads

VAN VS PANTOJA 2

UFC Flyweight World Championship • Los Angeles, CA

Photo: Championship rematch headlined at crypto.com Arena. High-altitude camp adaptations are expected to dictate the championship rounds.

Analytical Key Takeaways

Back-Take Vulnerability: Alexandre Pantoja converted 67% of his level-changes into control time across rounds 1 and 2 in the first meeting.
Late-Fight Pace Inversion: Joshua Van landed 4.8 significant strikes per minute in rounds 4 and 5, demonstrating superior aerobic longevity.
Market Pricing Discrepancy: Consensus lines price Van at +140 (41.7% implied probability), whereas our simulation models price his true probability at 47.2%.

When Joshua Van and Alexandre Pantoja first locked horns inside the Octagon, the narrative was framed around the classic collision between championship championship grappling pedigree and surging young striking potency. Twenty-five minutes later, the split decision left the combat world demanding closure.

Tactical Architecture: Striking Volume vs. Mat Control

Pantoja's hallmark throughout his championship tenure has been his unrelenting forward aggression in the opening ten minutes. His ability to initiate scrambles off the cage wall and transition directly into body-triangle back mounts has neutralized the division's cleanest boxers.

6.24

Van Sig. Strikes/Min

4.32

Pantoja Sig. Strikes/Min

82%

Van Takedown Defense

3.8

Pantoja Takedowns / 15m

However, the mathematical tape reveals a clear stamina tipping point. Historically, Pantoja's significant striking accuracy drops from 54% in the first two rounds to 38% by round four when forced to grapple continuously.

"If you don't break him in the first seven minutes, Joshua's engine takes over the building. In five-round fights, conditioning isn't just a factor—it is the weapon." Rombrex Combat Intelligence Film Room

Betting Market Intelligence & Mathematical Edge

The sportsbooks opened Pantoja as a moderate -165 favorite, with Van returning at +140. As sharp money entered the market following open workouts, the line contracted toward -145 / +125.

Interactive Calculation Engine

Simulate Fight Odds & Multi-Leg Parlays

Test bout profitability instantly with American, Decimal, and Fractional converters before wagering.

For bettors seeking exposure, the "Fight Goes To Decision" prop (+110) offers compounded value given both athletes' historic durability and low stoppage rates in title bouts.

Live Tactical Odds & Bout Matchup (Shortcode Demo)

[matchup f1="Joshua Van" f2="Alexandre Pantoja" odds1="+140" odds2="-165" event="UFC 331 MAIN EVENT" weight="Flyweight World Championship"] [alert type="warning"]High-variance championship bout: Alexandre Pantoja's first-round submission threat remains historically lethal. Bankroll discipline is strictly recommended.[/alert] [alert type="info"]Sharp Money Notice: Line opened at -165 Pantoja and contracted to -145 following open workout cardiovascular telemetry.[/alert] [alert type="success"]Model Verified Edge: 3 of 4 algorithmic simulations favor Joshua Van decision prop (+110).[/alert]

Round-by-Round Output Variance (Shortcode Table)

[table] Metric & Round | Joshua Van | Alexandre Pantoja | Tactical Differential Rounds 1-2 Sig Strikes | 21 / 38 (55%) | 34 / 52 (65%) | Pantoja (+13 Vol) Rounds 3-5 Sig Strikes | 58 / 92 (63%) | 22 / 61 (36%) | Van (+36 Cardio Edge) Takedown Control Time | 0:42 min | 5:18 min | Pantoja (+4:36 Mat Adv) Championship Pace | 8.4 strikes/min | 3.1 strikes/min | Van 2.7x Output [/table] [accordion title="Tap to Inspect Full UFC 331 Main Card Odds & Underdog Values"] Co-Main Event: Diego Lopes (-185) vs. Brian Ortega (+155) • Value on Lopes Inside the Distance (+120).
Welterweight Featured Bout: Ian Machado Garry (-220) vs. Geoff Neal (+180) • Garry Decision (-110) rates as highest EV play.
Heavyweight Clash: Jailton Almeida (-350) vs. Serghei Spivac (+275) • Under 1.5 Rounds favored (-145). [/accordion] [quote author="Joe Rogan" role="UFC Veteran Analyst"]When Joshua Van survives the initial ten minutes against Alexandre Pantoja, you enter deep championship water where sheer cardio dictates who leaves with the belt.[/quote]

[button url="/#calculator" type="primary" size="md"]Calculate Flyweight Parlay[/button] [button url="/#timezone" type="outline" size="md"]UFC Local Times[/button] [button url="https://espn.com" type="secondary" size="md"]ESPN Fight Center[/button]

[contact-form title="Submit Fight Scoop or Camp Intel" subtitle="Have verified inside camp reports, fighter weight cutting rumors, or sharp line movement? Send directly to Rombrex journalists."] [/contact-form]

RX

Rombrex Combat Desk

Senior Combat Sports Journalist • Betting Analyst

Covering UFC, DWCS, championship boxing, and sports betting analytics. All fight previews combine high-volume historical tape study with live mathematical model validations.

Combat Intelligence Engine

UFC & MMA Odds to Payout Calculator

Instant bi-directional betting calculator for MMA fights. Convert American, Decimal, Fractional, and Implied win probability with real-time ESPN matchup integration.

Quick Definition & Formula

An American betting line indicates potential payout relative to a $100 baseline. A minus (-) sign specifies the favorite and how much to wager to win $100 profit. A plus (+) sign specifies the underdog and the profit returned on a $100 wager. Implied win probability converts odds into percentage victory chance.

Wager & Odds Input

AUTO-CONVERTING

Stake Amount ($ USD)

American Odds

Decimal Odds

Fractional Odds

Implied Prob. (%)

Estimated Payout

Initial Stake: $100.00

Net Profit: +$66.67

Implied Probability: 60.00%

Total Payout: $166.67

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AEO & SEO Authority Guide

Understanding UFC & MMA Odds: Payout Formulas, Implied Probability & Betting Strategy

Editorial Desk: Rombrex Combat Sports Research Group • Updated: UFC 2026 Season • Standard: Las Vegas / European Decimal & Fractional Norms • Fact Checked: Verified Math Engine

Quick Answer: UFC fight betting odds express the financial return on a wager and the bookmaker's projected probability of a combatant winning. In American Odds, a minus (-) indicates the favorite (e.g., -200 means risking $200 yields $100 net profit), whereas a plus (+) indicates the underdog (e.g., +150 means risking $100 yields $150 net profit). In Decimal Odds, total payout is determined by Stake × Odds. In Fractional Odds, profit equals Stake × (Numerator / Denominator). All payouts return both your generated net profit and your initial stake upon a winning bet.

+/-

American Odds (Moneyline)

The standard format used by North American sportsbooks. Centered on a $100 baseline. A negative number illustrates how much capital you must lay down to win $100 profit. A positive number demonstrates how much profit you bank for every $100 risked. Widely used for UFC Main Cards and Contender Series matchups.

x.xx

Decimal Odds (European)

The dominant standard across Europe, Asia, and international betting exchanges. Decimal odds represent the total payout per single unit staked (including return of original stake). For instance, 2.50 means each $1 staked yields $2.50 total ($1.50 profit + $1.00 stake). It eliminates the dual-equation confusion of plus and minus lines.

%

Implied Probability & Vig

Converts betting lines into an estimated statistical percentage likelihood of victory. Because sportsbooks charge a commission (the vigorish or juice), adding both fighters' implied probabilities typically totals 104%–108%. Rombrex computes pure implied probability so you can spot positive expected value (+EV) in market discrepancies.

Comprehensive MMA Odds Conversion & Payout Matrix

Use the mathematical formulas below to verify any betting slip or manual sports wagering calculation:

Odds Format	Underdog Formula (+)	Favorite Formula (-)	Implied Probability Formula	$100 Wager Return Example
American (Moneyline)	`Profit = Stake × (Odds / 100)`	`Profit = Stake / (\|Odds\| / 100)`	Underdog: `100 / (Odds + 100)` Favorite: `\|Odds\| / (\|Odds\| + 100)`	+175: $175.00 Profit ($275.00 Payout) -220: $45.45 Profit ($145.45 Payout)
Decimal (Multiplier)	`Total Payout = Stake × Decimal Odds` `Profit = Payout - Stake`		`(1 / Decimal Odds) × 100`	2.75: $175.00 Profit ($275.00 Payout) 1.45: $45.45 Profit ($145.45 Payout)
Fractional (UK)	`Profit = Stake × (Numerator / Denominator)` `Payout = Profit + Stake`		`[D / (N + D)] × 100`	7/4: $175.00 Profit ($275.00 Payout) 5/11: $45.45 Profit ($145.45 Payout)

How to Calculate UFC Fight Payouts: 4-Step Walkthrough

Follow this standardized protocol to calculate your return before locking in any Octagon wager:

01

Identify Designation

Inspect the moneyline sign. A minus (e.g., -180) identifies the designated favorite. A plus (e.g., +155) identifies the underdog fighter.

02

Define Stake Amount

Decide your exact bankroll risk. Our calculator features quick-tap buttons for $10, $25, $50, $100, $250, and $500, or any custom sum.

03

Apply Formula

Input the line into the Rombrex tool. It synchronizes Decimal, Fractional, and Implied Win Probability simultaneously in real time.

04

Verify Parlay Compounding

If building a multi-bout fight slip, multiply the decimal odds of each leg together: Total Odds = Leg 1 × Leg 2 × Leg 3.

Real-World UFC Betting Scenarios & Worked Examples

Scenario A • Heavy Title Favorite

Fighter at -350 ($100 Wager)

To calculate net profit: $100 / (350 / 100) = $28.57 profit. Your total return from the bookmaker is $128.57 ($100 stake returned + $28.57 profit). Implied probability equals 350 / (350 + 100) = 77.78%.

Scenario B • Live Underdog Upset

Fighter at +240 ($100 Wager)

To calculate net profit: $100 × (240 / 100) = $240.00 profit. Your total payout is $340.00 ($100 stake returned + $240 profit). Implied probability equals 100 / (240 + 100) = 29.41%.

Scenario C • 3-Fight Main Card Parlay

Compound Odds ($50 Wager)

Leg 1: 1.50 (-200)
Leg 2: 2.10 (+110)
Leg 3: 1.70 (-143)
Combined Decimal: 1.50 × 2.10 × 1.70 = 5.355 (+436 American). Payout on $50 = $267.75 ($217.75 profit).

Frequently Asked Questions About UFC & MMA Odds (FAQ)

What do the plus (+) and minus (-) numbers mean in UFC betting?

In American odds, the minus (-) symbol designates the betting favorite (the fighter expected to win), indicating how much money you need to wager to win $100 in net profit. For example, -150 means wagering $150 wins $100 profit. The plus (+) symbol designates the underdog (the fighter expected to lose), indicating how much profit you earn on a $100 wager. For example, +200 means risking $100 earns $200 in net profit.

How do you calculate a UFC parlay bet payout?

A UFC parlay combines two or more individual fight selections into one single ticket. To calculate parlay payout: first convert each fight's American odds to Decimal odds, multiply all decimal odds together to find the compounded multiplier, then multiply that final number by your stake. For example, a 2-leg parlay with decimal odds of 1.80 and 2.20 equals 1.80 × 2.20 = 3.96. A $100 wager pays out $396.00 ($296 profit). Note that if any single fighter loses, the entire parlay is graded as a loss.

What is Implied Win Probability and why is it crucial for MMA bettors?

Implied win probability converts betting odds into the statistical percentage chance of victory implied by the sportsbook's price line. For an underdog (+), implied probability is 100 / (Odds + 100). For a favorite (-), it is |Odds| / (|Odds| + 100). Savvy sports bettors compare implied probability against their own fight analysis (tape study, striking accuracy, takedown defense). If you believe a fighter has a 60% chance of winning but the book odds imply only 45% (+122), that bet holds positive expected value (+EV).

What is the sportsbook "vig" (vigorish or juice) in UFC lines?

The vig (also known as juice or overround) is the commission charged by sportsbooks to guarantee their profit regardless of the fight outcome. In an evenly matched fight with two 50% probability fighters, fair odds would be +100 / +100 (2.00 / 2.00). However, sportsbooks usually list both fighters at -110 (1.91). When you sum their implied probabilities (52.38% + 52.38% = 104.76%), the excess 4.76% represents the house cut.

What happens to my UFC bet if a bout ends in a Draw or No Contest (NC)?

On standard 2-way moneyline bets (Fighter A vs. Fighter B without a Draw option), a Majority Draw, Split Draw, or No Contest (NC) results in a "Push." When a push occurs, your initial stake is refunded 100% with no profit or loss. If the fight was part of a multi-leg parlay, that specific leg is voided and removed from the ticket, and the parlay simply recalculates with the remaining bouts (e.g., a 4-fight parlay reduces to a 3-fight parlay).

Why is Decimal odds format superior for rapid live UFC in-play betting?

Between rounds in the UFC, momentum shifts rapidly and odds fluctuate within seconds. Decimal odds allow instant mental calculation because total payout is always a single straightforward multiplication: Stake × Odds. You do not need to switch cognitive logic between positive underdog formulas and negative favorite formulas under tight in-play time limits.

ESPN Automated Pipeline

UFC Fight Timezone Converter & Schedule

Live UFC start times automatically synchronized from ESPN and converted to your device's local clock with zero manual calculation.

Global Broadcast Schedule

Standard UFC Pay-Per-View Main Cards start at 10:00 PM US Eastern Time (ET) / 7:00 PM Pacific Time (PT). In the United Kingdom, main cards broadcast at 3:00 AM BST Sunday, Central Europe at 4:00 AM CEST, Cairo and Riyadh at 5:00 AM AST, and Sydney, Australia at 12:00 PM AEST.

UPCOMING EVENT Detected Local Timezone

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA

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Active Fight Card:

Dana White's Contender Series

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MAIN EVENT & TITLE FIGHTS

Main Card

10:00 PM

Saturday Night

FEATURED UNDERCARD

Preliminary Card

8:00 PM

Saturday Night

FIRST FIGHTS

Early Prelims

6:00 PM

Saturday Evening

Complete ESPN Fight Card Lineup

12 Bouts Verified

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AEO & SEO Broadcast Authority Guide

Global UFC Broadcast Times: International Schedules, Walkout Windows & Viewing Guide

Editorial Desk: Rombrex Combat Sports Research Group • Updated: UFC 2026 Season • Data Feed: ESPN Official UFC Scoreboard API (Zero-Intervention Sync) • Standards: Universal Time Coordinated (UTC) / IANA Timezone Database

Quick Answer: UFC Pay-Per-View (PPV) main cards consistently broadcast live at 10:00 PM Eastern Time (ET) / 7:00 PM Pacific Time (PT) on Saturday evenings in the United States, corresponding to 02:00 UTC (Sunday morning). Across global timezones, this equals 3:00 AM British Summer Time (BST) in London, 4:00 AM Central European Time (CET) in Paris and Berlin, 5:00 AM in Cairo and Riyadh, 6:00 AM Gulf Standard Time (GST) in Dubai, and 12:00 PM Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) on Sunday afternoon. UFC Fight Night events typically commence 3 to 5 hours earlier.

PPV vs FN

PPV vs. Fight Night Schedules

Numbered UFC events (UFC 300+) follow standard North American prime-time slots (10:00 PM ET Main Card). In contrast, UFC Fight Nights and international cards (hosted in London, Paris, Abu Dhabi, or Singapore) are scheduled around local arena prime time, frequently broadcasting in the afternoon for American fans.

3 TIERS

The 3-Tier Card Structure

Every UFC event follows three distinct segments: Early Prelims (prospect debuts and rising contenders), Preliminary Card (ranked contender clashes), and the 5-fight Main Card. Main Event title walkouts typically happen roughly 2 hours and 15 minutes after the Main Card broadcast begins.

DST

Daylight Saving Shifts (DST)

Twice per year in March and October/November, North America and Europe change clocks on different weekends. This creates a temporary 1-hour broadcast shift for European and Middle Eastern viewers. Rombrex uses dynamic browser IANA timezone resolution to eliminate conversion confusion automatically.

Comprehensive Global UFC Broadcast Timezone Matrix (Standard PPV)

Reference the verified local broadcast timetable below for standard Saturday night UFC Pay-Per-View championship cards:

Region & Prime Cities	Timezone Code	Early Prelims	Prelims	Main Card Start	Main Event Walkout Window
US Pacific (Las Vegas, Los Angeles)	PT / PDT (UTC-7/-8)	3:00 PM Sat	5:00 PM Sat	7:00 PM Sat	~9:15 PM – 9:30 PM Sat
US Eastern (New York, Miami)	ET / EDT (UTC-4/-5)	6:00 PM Sat	8:00 PM Sat	10:00 PM Sat	~12:15 AM – 12:30 AM Sun
UK & Ireland (London, Dublin)	GMT / BST (UTC+0/+1)	11:00 PM Sat	1:00 AM Sun	3:00 AM Sun	~5:15 AM – 5:30 AM Sun
Central Europe (Paris, Berlin, Rome)	CET / CEST (UTC+1/+2)	12:00 AM Sun	2:00 AM Sun	4:00 AM Sun	~6:15 AM – 6:30 AM Sun
Middle East & Egypt (Cairo, Riyadh)	EEST / AST (UTC+3)	1:00 AM Sun	3:00 AM Sun	5:00 AM Sun	~7:15 AM – 7:30 AM Sun
Gulf Region (Dubai, Abu Dhabi)	GST (UTC+4)	2:00 AM Sun	4:00 AM Sun	6:00 AM Sun	~8:15 AM – 8:30 AM Sun
Japan & South Korea (Tokyo, Seoul)	JST / KST (UTC+9)	7:00 AM Sun	9:00 AM Sun	11:00 AM Sun	~1:15 PM – 1:30 PM Sun
Eastern Australia (Sydney, Melbourne)	AEST / AEDT (UTC+10/+11)	8:00 AM Sun	10:00 AM Sun	12:00 PM Sun	~2:15 PM – 2:30 PM Sun
New Zealand (Auckland, Wellington)	NZST / NZDT (UTC+12/+13)	10:00 AM Sun	12:00 PM Sun	2:00 PM Sun	~4:15 PM – 4:30 PM Sun

How to Track and Convert UFC Fight Times: 4-Step Protocol

Follow these 4 simple steps to ensure you never miss an Octagon walkout or title bout:

01

Detect Local Zone

Rombrex detects your device's exact location clock via browser IANA API. You can also pick from 11 global cities via the quick-selector.

02

Check Card Tiers

Differentiate between Early Prelims (first fights), Prelims (televised featured), and the 5-fight Main Card PPV broadcast.

03

Monitor Countdown

Watch the live millisecond-accurate countdown timer. When the event starts, the badge transitions to "LIVE IN PROGRESS".

04

Export to Calendar

Click "+ Add to Google Calendar" to add automated calendar reminders so you are notified 15 minutes before the main event walks out.

Real-World UFC Event Timing Scenarios

Scenario A • Las Vegas PPV

UFC 331 (crypto.com Arena / T-Mobile)

Main Card starts at 10:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM PT. In London, fans tune in at 3:00 AM Sunday. In the Gulf (Dubai), fans wake up for morning coffee at 6:00 AM Sunday to catch the championship bouts.

Scenario B • Abu Dhabi Afternoon Card

UFC Fight Night / Etihad Arena

Main Card broadcasts live in prime time locally at 10:00 PM GST (Abu Dhabi). This translates to prime evening viewing in London at 7:00 PM BST and an afternoon watch party in the US at 2:00 PM ET.

Scenario C • Australia / Asia Stadium Card

UFC Perth / Sydney / Tokyo

To cater to North American PPV audiences, stadium events in Australia often run on Sunday midday (12:00 PM AEST), which aligns perfectly with Saturday 10:00 PM ET in the United States.

Frequently Asked Questions About UFC Start Times (FAQ)

What time does the UFC Main Card start in my local timezone?

For standard UFC numbered Pay-Per-Views, the Main Card always commences at 10:00 PM US Eastern Time (ET) / 7:00 PM US Pacific Time (PT). For European viewers in the UK and Ireland, this corresponds to 3:00 AM Sunday (BST/GMT). For Central Europe, it begins at 4:00 AM Sunday (CEST/CET). In Cairo and Riyadh, the main card starts at 5:00 AM Sunday, in Dubai at 6:00 AM Sunday, and in Sydney at 12:00 PM Sunday. The Rombrex converter automatically syncs with your device clock to display your exact local schedule.

What is the difference between UFC Pay-Per-View and UFC Fight Night start times?

UFC Pay-Per-View events (such as UFC 300, UFC 310, UFC 331) are almost always locked into the 10:00 PM ET Saturday slot regardless of where the arena is located in the Americas. UFC Fight Nights and APEX events, however, frequently begin 3 to 5 hours earlier (often starting prelims at 4:00 PM ET and main cards at 7:00 PM ET). International cards in Europe or the Middle East may start even earlier in the US afternoon.

What approximate time will the UFC Main Event fight walk out to the Octagon?

A standard UFC Main Card features 5 bouts. If the preceding 4 fights go to decisions (3 rounds of 5 minutes plus round breaks and video packages), the Main Event walkouts generally occur approximately 2 hours to 2 hours and 20 minutes after the Main Card starts. For a standard 10:00 PM ET card, expected main event walkouts are around 12:15 AM – 12:30 AM ET (5:15 AM – 5:30 AM BST in the UK). If early bouts end in quick knockouts or submissions, walkouts can occur sooner.

How long does an entire UFC event last from the first fight to the end?

A full UFC fight card consisting of 11 to 14 total bouts typically spans between 5 and 6 hours. Early Prelims run for approximately 1.5 to 2 hours, the Preliminary Card runs for about 2 hours, and the Main Card takes roughly 2.5 to 3 hours depending on the number of decision outcomes and championship 5-round fights.

How do Daylight Saving Time (DST) changes impact international UFC broadcasts?

The United States and European nations transition in and out of Daylight Saving Time on different calendar weekends in March and October/November. During these 1-to-2 week windows, the standard timezone difference between New York and London contracts from 5 hours down to 4 hours (or vice versa). Rombrex protects you against this scheduling trap by retrieving live UTC timestamps directly from ESPN and resolving them against your device's native IANA timezone database.

Where can I legally stream UFC fights across different global regions?

Official streaming rights vary by territory: in the United States, PPVs air exclusively on ESPN+ PPV with prelims on ESPN/ESPN+; in the United Kingdom and Ireland, cards air on TNT Sports and discovery+; in the Middle East and North Africa, fights stream on UFC Arabia and STARZPLAY; in Canada on Sportsnet+ and TSN+; in Australia on Main Event (Kayo Sports); and across most other international regions via UFC Fight Pass.

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Founded with a passion for mixed martial arts, Rombrex is a specialized sports technology and combat journalism publication. We bridge the gap between complex sports analytics and passionate fight fans across the globe.

Whether you are tracking fight times across international time zones or calculating precise expected values on upcoming title fights, Rombrex delivers the tools and reporting you need to stay ahead of the fight game.

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02

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